Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf945…c787 crypto 1122 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,455 (-6%) realized −$3,455 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%587W / 535L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$296
14 days+$538
30 days+$718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5,093
world 1% +$165
other 1% −$293
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -12.7% -21.0% 41% 39% -3.5%
≤30d 157 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 45% -0.4%
≤90d 935 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 50% -19.4%
all 1122 -9.5% -18.1% 52% 51% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 51% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 46% -26.3%
15% -33.1% 40% -33.4%
20% -39.7% 33% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$42 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,455
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses587 / 535
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1122 / 1122
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1122 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $228 +$181 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$24 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $47 +$34 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$42 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $517 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $232 +$193 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $207 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$41 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$31 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$11 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $233 −$12 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$85 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $124 +$96 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $98 −$50 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $222 +$189 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $57 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $408 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $81 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $47 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $96 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $88 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $23 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records