Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf946…5e63
crypto · 130 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$169 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$187 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses75 / 53
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage244d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 2 History 128 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$121
14 days+$121
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $20 −$13 -62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $158 +$16 +10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $736 +$11 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $104 +$16 +16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $186 +$13 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $216 +$38 +18%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $69 −$14 -20%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 +$15 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 +$4 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $163 +$17 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $769 +$5 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $230 +$10 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $4,465 +$8 +0%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $131 +$10 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $170 +$30 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $83 −$30 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +37%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $18 −$2 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $84 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $106 +$35 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $193 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $71 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 07 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 07 $30 −$14 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 07 $115 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 07 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 42% +$8
other 27% −$42
crypto 23% −$205
sports 4% +$17
tech 3% +$27
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 3¢ $6 8m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 8¢ $7 10m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 8¢ $0 11m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 8¢ $0 11m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 8¢ $0 11m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 8¢ $0 11m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 11¢ $0 13m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 11¢ $0 13m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 11¢ $0 13m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 11¢ $1 13m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 11¢ $3 13m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 11¢ $7 13m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 10¢ $2 14m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 7¢ $0 15m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 7¢ $0 16m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 7¢ $0 16m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 7¢ $0 16m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 7¢ $0 16m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 28m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 31m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $60 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $68 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 30% -8.2%
≤30d 37 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 30% -8.2%
≤90d 37 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 30% -8.2%
all 128 -7.9% -16.7% 59% 34% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 34% -11.1%
10% -24.7% 23% -19.6%
15% -31.9% 17% -27.4%
20% -38.6% 15% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.00 · official $61.00 (match) · 1286 history records