Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf948…bb6a sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$56 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$7
14 days−$12
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$42
other 10% −$29
crypto 3% +$24
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +20.2% +8.7% 42% 35% -10.2%
≤30d 31 +10.8% +0.3% 39% 32% -11.5%
≤90d 31 +10.8% +0.3% 39% 32% -11.5%
all 31 +10.8% +0.3% 39% 32% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 32% -11.5%
10% -9.3% 32% -20.0%
15% -18.1% 32% -27.7%
20% -26.1% 32% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$17 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage17d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 85¢ $60 $106 +$46 (+77%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 58¢ 18¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$24 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 +$55 +180%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $300 +$15 +5%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$36 +90%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 +$31 +76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$66 +1288%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$17 +170%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 −$12 -58%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $31 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $31 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $1 36h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $2 36h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $11 36h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $40 36h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $47 36h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $8 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $26 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $24 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $24 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 37h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 37h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $30 37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $315 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $300 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.26 · official $81.05 · 65 history records