Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F9 0xf948…316b other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,822per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$14
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 80% 0% -9.3%
all 7 +0.8% -8.8% 71% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,822
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Mar 14 $14,349 −$14 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 17 $28 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 34d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 34d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 57d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $25 80d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $34 101d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? SELL No 100¢ $14,335 101d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14,349 101d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 127d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.98 · official $34.98 (match) · 35 history records