Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf949…3220 sports 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,433 (+2%) realized +$5,434 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate73%33W / 12L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$5,553per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$1,240est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$3,385
world 19% +$2,428
politics 18% +$1,501
other 11% +$4,001
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.9% -14.0% 75% 50% -4.2%
≤30d 45 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 53% -5.4%
≤90d 45 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 53% -5.4%
all 45 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 53% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 53% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 24% -14.5%
15% -28.1% 9% -22.7%
20% -35.1% 7% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$5,122) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,126 vs −$2,154 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,006
Realized+$5,434
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses33 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$1,240
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage18d
Avg bet$5,553
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,000 $1,999 −$1 (-0%)
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $44,621 +$12,932 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $7,256 −$5,968 -82%
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $190 −$8 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 29 $3,038 +$683 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 29 $5,120 +$816 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 29 $29,340 +$776 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $2,831 −$241 -8%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $3,281 +$96 +3%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 29 $5,936 +$176 +3%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $2,660 +$566 +21%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,361 +$183 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $2,648 −$2,215 -84%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $5,025 +$663 +13%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $7,324 +$2,426 +33%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3,075 −$3,035 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $2,464 −$2,431 -99%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3,180 +$820 +26%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3,658 +$578 +16%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $5,122 +$718 +14%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5,966 +$739 +12%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $947 +$49 +5%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,995 +$134 +7%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,142 +$119 +10%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1,418 +$192 +14%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $176 +$48 +27%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,306 +$275 +21%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $33,526 +$395 +1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,270 +$37 +3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $2,963 +$2,082 +70%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $3,259 +$1,037 +32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $5,164 +$954 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5,821 +$1,724 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $866 +$584 +67%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $6,232 +$3,526 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $4,240 −$4,202 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $1,927 −$1,927 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,917 +$1,105 +38%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3,037 +$222 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $11,174 +$1,266 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,002 +$598 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,950 +$650 +22%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $3,997 −$254 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $126 −$29 -23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 10 $3,165 −$3,120 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $2,468 −$2,423 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,000 21m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 77¢ $20 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 77¢ $14,367 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 77¢ $2,278 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 77¢ $7,753 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 77¢ $20,203 3h
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $183 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $3,721 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 80¢ $5,936 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9,826 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $24,957 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 73¢ $10 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $2 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $163 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $345 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $7 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $11 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $320 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $3 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $32 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $6 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $354 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $149 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $212 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $150 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $38 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $11 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $30 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $21 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,006.33 · official $2,006.33 (match) · 271 history records