Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:11:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf94d…8bfb crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,644 (+47%) realized +$793 · open +$851
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate68%50W / 24L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$629
14 days+$730
30 days+$730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$1,048
crypto 40% +$68
world 10% +$468
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -4.7% -13.8% 67% 48% +18.2%
≤30d 74 -4.1% -13.2% 68% 49% +19.2%
≤90d 74 -4.1% -13.2% 68% 49% +19.2%
all 74 -4.1% -13.2% 68% 49% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 49% +19.2%
10% -21.5% 41% +7.8%
15% -29.1% 32% -2.6%
20% -36.1% 20% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.08 per $1 lost it wins $5.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1,462
Realized+$793
Unrealized+$851
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses50 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage30d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 38¢ 92¢ $611 $1,462 +$851 (+139%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $126 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$26 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $121 +$20 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $46 −$20 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $36 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $13 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,462.10 · official $1,462.10 (match) · 191 history records