Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf94f…9ada sports 226 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22,488 (-3%) realized −$21,061 · open −$1,427
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate71%159W / 65L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,860per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2,456est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,965
7 days−$4,870
14 days−$9,684
30 days−$9,684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$19,534
other 6% −$4,345
crypto 1% −$1,032
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.7% -7.0% 76% 72% -15.3%
≤30d 29 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 69% -19.6%
≤90d 129 -0.2% -9.7% 71% 63% -13.2%
all 224 -2.1% -11.5% 71% 58% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 58% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 37% -21.2%
15% -27.7% 24% -28.8%
20% -34.8% 18% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$3,408) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$857 vs −$2,459 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$2,262
Realized−$21,061
Unrealized−$1,427
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses159 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2,456
Open positions2
Markets (closed)224 / 226
History coverage145d
Avg bet$2,860
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 61¢ 58¢ $2,374 $2,260 −$114 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 24¢ 0¢ $1,315 $3 −$1,313 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $4,154 −$809 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $2,623 +$482 +18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4,936 −$4,923 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,496 +$450 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $2,224 +$267 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,220 −$2,220 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,746 +$483 +28%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $975 +$772 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,408 +$1,770 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,982 +$429 +14%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $2,648 +$334 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7,056 −$7,030 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1,500 +$1,075 +72%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,250 −$1,232 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6,463 +$767 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2,615 −$2,579 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,533 +$1,065 +70%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,654 +$979 +59%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3,137 +$919 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5,023 +$1,091 +22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5,784 +$1,387 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,215 +$422 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,716 +$499 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,107 +$608 +29%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $1,986 +$123 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,160 −$3,152 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,627 +$532 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,637 −$2,620 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,211 +$426 +19%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,013 −$78 -8%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5 May 02 $43 +$12 +29%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? Apr 11 $9,001 −$9,001 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 4 Winner Apr 11 $2,820 +$1,927 +68%
AVS Futebol vs. Vitória SC: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 11 $2,586 −$2,586 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 3 Winner Apr 11 $2,900 +$1,922 +66%
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $5,000 −$4,973 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Apr 11 $5,000 −$4,915 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T Apr 11 $1,747 −$1,724 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 11 $2,548 +$1,038 +41%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Apr 11 $2,784 +$764 +27%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Apr 11 $2,419 −$2,419 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Apr 11 $5,423 −$76 -1%
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 11 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $3,596 −$3,596 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $5,000 +$785 +16%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Apr 10 $4,500 +$3,096 +69%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Apr 10 $2,680 +$1,847 +69%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $2,580 +$2,600 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $2,401 8m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 24¢ $1,345 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,350 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1,048 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 30¢ $1,044 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $1,990 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 59¢ $1,994 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $3,106 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $3,105 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 84¢ $2,623 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 91¢ $4,936 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,946 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,496 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2,491 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $2,224 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $2,229 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 77¢ $1,746 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,747 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $975 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 41¢ $2,220 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $5,179 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 66¢ $1,836 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $1,573 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,410 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $2,982 41h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,982 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2,648 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $7,056 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,575 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,500 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,262.39 · official $2,262.39 (match) · 516 history records