Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf94f…0cc8 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,089 (+12%) realized +$2,066 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%44W / 75L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,378
7 days+$1,211
14 days+$1,301
30 days+$1,267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$2,244
sports 21% −$212
crypto 18% −$773
world 5% +$1,205
culture 0% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -22.5% -29.9% 45% 43% +0.2%
≤30d 92 -26.1% -33.1% 38% 37% -0.9%
≤90d 111 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 37% +3.1%
all 119 -17.1% -25.0% 37% 35% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 35% +3.4%
10% -32.2% 34% -6.5%
15% -38.7% 29% -15.5%
20% -44.8% 22% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$56 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$766
Realized+$2,066
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses44 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions8
Markets (closed)119 / 128
History coverage115d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $103 $158 +$55 (+53%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 68¢ 72¢ $102 $107 +$5 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $98 $105 +$6 (+7%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 56¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-3.5) France 35¢ 36¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $99 $83 −$16 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $102 $67 −$35 (-35%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 34¢ 38¢ $51 $58 +$7 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $515 +$235 +46%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $21 +$99 +474%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $104 +$100 +97%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $1,298 +$435 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $128 +$70 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$13 +26%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $113 +$87 +76%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 +$241 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $711 +$339 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $381 +$46 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$33 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $515 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $207 +$188 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $932 −$96 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 +$99 +64%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $112 +$88 +78%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $151 +$49 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $252 +$100 +40%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$204 +67%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,384 +$682 +49%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $52 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $103 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $86 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $105 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $21 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $104 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $515 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 23h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,181 23h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $10 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 30h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $113 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,049 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $711 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $766.10 · official $766.50 (match) · 272 history records