Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf94f…78d7
crypto · 246 markets active 5d ago
4.0score
+$132,888 +132%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$132,888 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY
Copy trade ★ In watchlist
Net worth$22
Realized+$132,888
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses230 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
Avg bet$409
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 0 History 246 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? No 98¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will Wells Fargo say "Inflation" during earnings call? No 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on May 28? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 26? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 18? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? May 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 12? May 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 9? May 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 8? May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 4? May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 1? May 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 27? Apr 30 $16 $0 +1%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 27 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 9? Mar 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 9? Mar 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 9? Mar 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 9? Mar 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ulster win? Mar 09 $440 +$4,675 +1062%
San Martin de Corrientes vs. Gimnasia Mar 09 $972 +$6,394 +658%
LG Sakers vs. Goyang Mar 09 $106 +$867 +820%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? Mar 09 $842 +$2,765 +328%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $93 +$1 +1%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 07 $6 $0 +1%
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 07 $15 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 07 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1? Mar 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 01 $3 $0 +1%
Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 01 $15 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? Feb 28 $5,000 +$1,375 +28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Feb 28 $12,138 −$901 -7%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on February 27? Feb 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 27? Feb 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 27? Feb 28 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 27? Feb 28 $251 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 27% +$50,701
crypto 26% +$17
other 20% +$46,409
finance 18% +$7,152
tech 4% +$12,268
politics 2% +$1,999
culture 1% +$5,784
weather 1% +$2,749
world 1% +$4,298
economics 0% +$1,512
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $22 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $22 16d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $2 18d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 25d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? BUY No 98¢ $17 28d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 12? BUY No 99¢ $17 31d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 9? BUY No 99¢ $17 34d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $17 36d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $17 39d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 1? BUY No 98¢ $16 43d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 27? BUY No 98¢ $16 46d
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 76d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $47 88d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 93d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 94d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 94d
Will Ulster win? SELL Yes 93¢ $5,115 94d
Will Ulster win? BUY Yes 8¢ $440 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $6 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 94d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $6 94d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 9? BUY No 98¢ $6 94d
San Martin de Corrientes vs. Gimnasia SELL San Martin de Corrientes 92¢ $3,005 94d
San Martin de Corrientes vs. Gimnasia SELL San Martin de Corrientes 92¢ $4,362 94d
San Martin de Corrientes vs. Gimnasia BUY San Martin de Corrientes 15¢ $711 94d
San Martin de Corrientes vs. Gimnasia BUY San Martin de Corrientes 8¢ $261 94d
LG Sakers vs. Goyang SELL LG Sakers 92¢ $972 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+269.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 -12.2% -20.6% 88% 0% -24.2%
≤90d 17 -11.2% -19.7% 88% 0% -26.9%
all 246 +308.4% +269.5% 93% 31% +108.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +269.5% 31% +108.2%
10% +234.2% 31% +88.3%
15% +201.9% 30% +70.1%
20% +172.3% 30% +53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.09 · official $22.09 (match) · 564 history records