Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf955…99f0 crypto 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$97 (-8%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate65%149W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$41
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$73
sports 10% −$30
other 9% −$11
world 4% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -12.5% -20.9% 47% 28% -19.5%
≤30d 72 -12.5% -20.9% 47% 28% -19.5%
≤90d 72 -12.5% -20.9% 47% 28% -19.5%
all 230 -8.0% -16.7% 65% 31% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 31% -17.5%
10% -24.7% 15% -25.4%
15% -32.0% 7% -32.6%
20% -38.6% 3% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses149 / 81
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)230 / 230
History coverage116d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 230 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$11 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$6 +37%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$5 -43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 13 $8 −$5 -59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 13 $28 −$2 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $16 35h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $2 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $2 38h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 749 history records