Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf956…b9ff sports 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%13W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$4
politics 25% −$4
other 20% −$2
economics 8% −$1
world 7% −$1
culture 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 169 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses13 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 169
History coverage172d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 21 $263 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $225 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 17 $40 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 11 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 11 $92 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $187 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 06 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $45 $0 +1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 05 $152 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 01 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $45 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $45 5h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $40 11d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 11d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $34 26d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $34 26d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 39d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 39d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $47 94d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $47 94d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 93¢ $47 94d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 94¢ $44 95d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 94¢ $3 95d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 95d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 95d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $45 95d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $45 95d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $37 95d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 95d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $46 95d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 96d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $45 96d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $45 96d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $45 96d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $45 96d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $35 96d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $28 97d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $7 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 592 history records