Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf95d…0b23 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$335 (-7%) realized −$288 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$19
14 days+$23
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$21
crypto 36% +$123
finance 15% −$253
other 3% −$29
economics 1% −$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +10.6% +0.1% 100% 50% -3.5%
≤30d 13 +10.4% -0.1% 69% 38% -0.1%
≤90d 37 -7.8% -16.6% 59% 22% -9.8%
all 41 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 22% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 22% -11.7%
10% -27.3% 10% -20.2%
15% -34.3% 7% -27.9%
20% -40.7% 5% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$34 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage142d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $59 $29 −$30 (-51%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? Yes 32¢ 3¢ $19 $2 −$17 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $205 +$3 +1%
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? Jun 24 $82 +$16 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $356 −$37 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $150 +$42 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $47 −$45 -96%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $126 +$104 +83%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $216 +$118 +55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $53 +$25 +48%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $89 +$7 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $332 −$32 -10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $270 +$17 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $198 +$13 +7%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25? May 25 $101 +$8 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $172 +$8 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 19 $107 +$8 +8%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 18 $135 +$18 +14%
US recession by end of 2026? May 15 $25 −$3 -13%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? May 13 $32 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 12 $21 $0 -2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? May 11 $54 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $30 +$4 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 07 $170 +$16 +9%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 25 $45 −$45 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27? Apr 23 $6 $0 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Apr 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 20 $104 −$104 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 20 $46 +$4 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 15 $151 −$151 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13? Apr 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 11 $50 +$7 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 07 $49 −$4 -7%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 06 $168 +$6 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $150 +$15 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 24 $1 $0 +13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $10 $0 +4%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 3-9? Mar 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $180 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $68 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $31 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $36 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 2d
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $93 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $94 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $60 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $288 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 68¢ $204 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $80 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $82 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.61 · official $30.21 (match) · 189 history records