Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf95e…1816 sports 540 markets active 2d ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,434 (+2%) realized +$1,418 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%281W / 255L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$559est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,333
7 days−$204
14 days−$1,509
30 days−$1,441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$1,208
other 8% −$409
world 0% +$5
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 49% -11.8%
≤30d 197 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 52% -14.2%
≤90d 410 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 53% -8.1%
all 536 +3.2% -6.6% 52% 49% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 49% -8.5%
10% -15.5% 43% -17.3%
15% -23.7% 35% -25.3%
20% -31.2% 27% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$93 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized+$1,418
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses281 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$559
Open positions4
Markets (closed)536 / 540
History coverage123d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 83¢ 90¢ $321 $350 +$29 (+9%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners Over 52¢ 54¢ $103 $106 +$3 (+3%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 45¢ 48¢ $81 $86 +$4 (+6%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Power Rangers 80¢ 50¢ $56 $35 −$21 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $126 +$18 +14%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Overwatch: VARREL vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group St Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent - Who wins the toss? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Quali Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $143 −$143 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $163 −$163 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $228 −$228 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $215 −$215 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $310 −$310 -100%
BC Neptunas Klaipeda vs. BC Lietkabelis Panevezys Jun 14 $245 −$245 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $57 +$9 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $54 +$69 +129%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $88 −$86 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $69 −$68 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $164 −$161 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $757 +$207 +27%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $56 +$115 +206%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $61 +$89 +146%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $114 +$14 +12%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $328 +$146 +45%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $58 +$11 +18%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $276 +$115 +42%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $113 +$56 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $283 +$123 +44%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $17 −$2 -13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $42 −$41 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $546 +$132 +24%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $112 +$144 +129%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $36 +$46 +129%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $214 +$117 +55%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $56 +$8 +13%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $56 +$9 +16%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $164 +$91 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $88 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $54 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $69 2d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 45¢ $82 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 21¢ $27 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $323 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 86¢ $57 2d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 49¢ $164 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $126 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $12 2d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $56 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $127 3d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 64¢ $228 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 55¢ $54 3d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 31¢ $95 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $104 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 40¢ $61 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Power Rangers 80¢ $56 3d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 78¢ $757 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 51¢ $163 3d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 100¢ $169 3d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 66¢ $310 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $42 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 89¢ $114 4d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 70¢ $276 4d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 68¢ $272 4d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 71¢ $56 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 66¢ $113 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 84¢ $58 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $283 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.99 · official $580.99 (match) · 1257 history records