Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf95e…f351 other 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$58
sports 24% −$15
politics 9% −$8
crypto 6% −$4
culture 5% −$5
economics 5% −$7
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 91 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.8%
all 241 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage127d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $348 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $576 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $422 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $279 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $320 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $142 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $128 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $153 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $186 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $364 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $307 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 4h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 6h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 8h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 10h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 12h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $30 13h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $30 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 19h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 20h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $30 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $31 24h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $31 25h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $31 26h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $31 29h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $31 31h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 32h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 33h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $31 35h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $31 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $31 41h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $31 42h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 44h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 46h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $31 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1427 history records