Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F9 0xf95f…e6e8 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$13
tech 14% −$2
sports 5% −$2
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
other 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -2.6% -11.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,286) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage96d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 29 $75 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $1,440 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $1,437 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $1,308 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Apr 17 $16 −$1 -9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 17 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con Apr 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $189 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $74 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $59 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 25 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,393 1h
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $75 1h
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,347 1h
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,438 2h
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,424 2h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $989 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $295 3h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 3h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 3h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,286 3h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 23h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $1,434 23h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 23h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 23h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 24h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,495 24h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 24h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 24h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,464 24h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $955 24h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $352 24h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 24h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,308 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $222 72d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $222 72d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL Yes $4 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records