Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf95f…e08c sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$98 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$84
other 37% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.0% +15.9% 100% 100% +15.9%
≤30d 1 +28.0% +15.9% 100% 100% +15.9%
≤90d 7 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 57% +7.6%
all 7 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 57% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 57% +7.6%
10% -15.6% 43% -2.7%
15% -23.7% 29% -12.1%
20% -31.2% 29% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage76d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $68 +$19 +28%
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will USL Dunkerque win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $8 −$4 -53%
Will Red Star FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $19 −$10 -55%
Madison Keys vs. Belinda Bencic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 03 $9 +$10 +113%
Copa Colsanitas: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Julia Riera Apr 03 $4 +$5 +116%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider Apr 03 $3 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 38¢ $29 37m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $29 42m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ $45 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 14¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $81 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $88 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $68 2h
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 76d
Will USL Dunkerque win on 2026-04-03? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 76d
Will USL Dunkerque win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 76d
Will Red Star FC win on 2026-04-03? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 76d
Will Red Star FC win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 76d
Madison Keys vs. Belinda Bencic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 98¢ $19 76d
Madison Keys vs. Belinda Bencic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $9 76d
Copa Colsanitas: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Julia Riera SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 99¢ $9 76d
Copa Colsanitas: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Julia Riera BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 45¢ $4 76d
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider SELL Jessica Pegula 99¢ $4 76d
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider BUY Jessica Pegula 82¢ $3 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.09 (match) · 18 history records