Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf961…259c weather 532 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$177 (+0%) realized +$172 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate89%465W / 55L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10,732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$159
other 0% −$47
sports 0% +$41
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 291 +2.9% -6.9% 92% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 520 +0.4% -9.2% 89% 3% -9.4%
all 520 +0.4% -9.2% 89% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$10,732
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses465 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)520 / 532
History coverage72d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $8,622 $8,626 +$4 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $598 $598 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $458 $458 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $340 $340 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 +$17 +746%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$3 +22%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$39 +189%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $123 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +354%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $151 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $445 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $307 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $916 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $729 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $1,104 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 9? Jun 09 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 81°F or below on June 9? Jun 09 $136 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $171 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $7,623 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $340 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $458 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $598 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $200 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $188 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $37 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $34 12h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $35 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $22 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $102 8d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 96¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,731.88 · official $10,731.88 (match) · 1662 history records