Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf961…699c weather 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$174 (+2%) realized +$126 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate91%113W / 11L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$144
14 days+$124
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +0.1% -9.5% 94% 10% -7.6%
≤30d 124 -2.9% -12.2% 91% 8% -8.1%
≤90d 124 -2.9% -12.2% 91% 8% -8.1%
all 124 -2.9% -12.2% 91% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 8% -8.1%
10% -20.6% 0% -16.9%
15% -28.2% 0% -24.9%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$24 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$772
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses113 / 11
Open positions12
Markets (closed)124 / 136
History coverage9d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $138 $151 +$13 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $138 $150 +$12 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $116 $119 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $98 $108 +$10 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? No 93¢ 95¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $490 +$28 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 −$32 -68%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $73 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $153 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $98 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $205 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $351 +$19 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $618 +$42 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $189 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $338 +$17 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $176 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $97 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $408 +$43 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $39 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $108 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $75 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $429 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $39 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $57 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 92¢ $106 11m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $116 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $99 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $139 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $139 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $17 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $490 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $31 18h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 96¢ $153 18h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $73 21h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $98 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $23 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $205 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $772.32 · official $763.23 · 265 history records