Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf962…2a03 crypto 16 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-6%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 38% -18.8%
≤30d 16 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 38% -18.8%
≤90d 16 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 38% -18.8%
all 16 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 38% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 38% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 25% -26.6%
15% -38.7% 25% -33.7%
20% -44.7% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records