Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf963…20f8 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$38 (+6%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$7
other 30% +$30
politics 10% +$1
tech 7% $0
sports 6% +$1
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 29% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 29% 0% -7.8%
all 23 +39.5% +26.2% 57% 9% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.2% 9% -4.0%
10% +14.1% 4% -13.2%
15% +3.1% 4% -21.5%
20% -7.0% 4% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.45 per $1 lost it wins $8.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage482d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $23 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $78 +$8 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $79 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 07 $44 $0 +1%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 18 $3 +$31 +953%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Apr 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 24 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $15 $0 +3%
Albany vs. UMBC Mar 20 $14 −$1 -9%
Stetson vs. Jacksonville Mar 20 $13 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $36 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $2 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $14 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $52 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $44 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $12 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $13 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $10 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $57 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $48 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $29 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $16 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $23 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $49 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $28 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $16 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $14 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $13 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $33 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.07 · official $29.07 (match) · 78 history records