Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F9 0xf963…cd2b crypto 216 markets active 5d ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,853 (-59%) realized −$1,853 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate38%82W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$234
other 2% −$4
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -4.8% -13.9% 28% 21% -15.0%
≤30d 47 -4.8% -13.9% 28% 21% -15.0%
≤90d 94 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 29% -19.0%
all 216 -9.4% -18.1% 38% 26% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 26% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 18% -24.4%
15% -33.1% 10% -31.7%
20% -39.6% 7% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,853
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses82 / 134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$13 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$28 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $58 −$16 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$41 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$67 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$11 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $66 −$11 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 16? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $63 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$5 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $23 +$11 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
XRP Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $7 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 11 $0 $0 -13%
Solana Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $46 +$17 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $59 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs STATE - Map 1 Winner Mar 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 1PM ET Mar 20 $9 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 1PM ET Mar 20 $9 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records