Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F9 0xf964…e224 sports 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$24 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%71W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$276
14 days+$299
30 days+$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$302
other 25% −$177
world 6% +$1
crypto 4% −$68
politics 3% −$55
tech 1% −$69
economics 1% +$5
finance 0% −$20
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.6% -7.2% 53% 40% +21.1%
≤30d 27 +17.4% +6.2% 48% 41% +22.0%
≤90d 50 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 36% +8.1%
all 147 -12.3% -20.7% 48% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 41% -10.4%
10% -28.3% 29% -19.0%
15% -35.2% 22% -26.8%
20% -41.6% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses71 / 76
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions10
Markets (closed)147 / 158
History coverage160d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $51 $42 −$9 (-17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-56%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 +$32 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $61 +$48 +79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$61 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$44 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$9 -18%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $183 +$318 +174%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$3 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$9 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $60 +$70 +116%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 07 $100 −$2 -2%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $51 −$1 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 28 $51 +$14 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $30 +$143 +477%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $20 +$30 +146%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 13 $30 −$12 -41%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? May 03 $15 −$15 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 03 $20 −$20 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $31 +$76 +250%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $50 +$41 +83%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $70 −$69 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 23 $30 +$13 +44%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Apr 13 $40 +$7 +17%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 13 $50 +$5 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 13 $50 +$102 +203%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $50 +$6 +12%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 06 $103 +$5 +5%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $30 −$8 -27%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $60 +$5 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 34¢ $36 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 97¢ $32 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $63 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $42 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 55¢ $61 2d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 90¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $60 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $42 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.87 · official $726.87 · 463 history records