Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf969…1528 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%23W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$9
politics 24% −$14
sports 23% −$12
crypto 9% −$1
world 5% −$3
culture 4% −$5
finance 4% +$2
economics 4% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 69 -0.9% -10.3% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 118 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 138 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 115
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage100d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $52 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $115 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $28 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $271 −$2 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $120 −$2 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $46 $0 -1%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $41 $0 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $54 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $57 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $153 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 -2%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $105 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $46 −$2 -5%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $45 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $58 −$1 -2%
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $53 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $49 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $245 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $60 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 8h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 9h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 16h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 17h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $42 22h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $41 22h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $41 27h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $41 28h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $41 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $42 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 40h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $53 40h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $53 46h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 47h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $43 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $43 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $51 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $51 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $56 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.64 · official $42.64 (match) · 471 history records