Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf96a…e4c4 crypto 565 markets active 2d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate60%341W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days+$43
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -13.7% -21.9% 44% 44% -23.6%
≤30d 565 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 39% -8.4%
≤90d 565 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 39% -8.4%
all 565 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 39% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 39% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 35% -17.2%
15% -29.4% 33% -25.2%
20% -36.3% 28% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses341 / 224
Open positions0
Markets (closed)565 / 565
History coverage20d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 565 Trades
no open positions (220 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +245%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1033 history records