Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf96c…429e
weather · 92 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses72 / 7
Open positions13
Markets (closed)79 / 92
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 73¢ 97¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? No 56¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 76¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 73¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 87¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 97¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 71¢ 46¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? No 75¢ 45¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 9? No 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? No 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 7? No 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 11? No 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? No 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? No 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? No 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 71¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? BUY No 61¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 90¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 51¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 68¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 97¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY No 91¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY No 68¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 90¢ $5 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +1.3% -8.3% 91% 25% -8.2%
≤30d 79 +1.3% -8.3% 91% 25% -8.2%
≤90d 79 +1.3% -8.3% 91% 25% -8.2%
all 79 +1.3% -8.3% 91% 25% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 25% -8.2%
10% -17.1% 15% -17.0%
15% -25.1% 6% -25.0%
20% -32.5% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.42 · official $63.43 (match) · 164 history records