Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

F9 0xf96d…9aee other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$86 (-15%) realized −$63 · open −$23

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%2W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$42

7 days+$102

14 days−$26

30 days−$26

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-11.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+58.6%	+43.5%	50%	50%	+40.4%
≤30d	5	+26.9%	+14.8%	40%	40%	-16.9%
≤90d	5	+26.9%	+14.8%	40%	40%	-16.9%
all	8	-1.9%	-11.3%	25%	25%	-29.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.3%	25%	-29.2%
10%	-19.8%	25%	-35.9%
15%	-27.5%	25%	-42.1%
20%	-34.6%	25%	-47.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$80 vs −$42 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.63 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage

Net worth$124

Realized−$63

Unrealized−$23

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses2 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage114d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	55¢	40¢	$87	$63	−$24 (-27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$60	$60	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$40	+$49	+124%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$47	−$7	-16%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$49	+$111	+226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$131	−$128	-98%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?	Mar 27	$52	−$52	-100%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?	Mar 05	$29	−$14	-48%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?	Mar 03	$29	−$1	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	55¢	$89	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	44¢	$40	22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$40	22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$47	30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$61	35h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	30¢	$49	5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	25¢	$131	11d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$52	90d
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?	SELL Yes	15¢	$15	112d
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?	BUY Yes	29¢	$29	113d
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?	SELL Yes	75¢	$28	113d
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?	BUY Yes	76¢	$29	113d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.96 · official $127.28 · 16 history records