Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf974…5a9e crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$54 (+9%) realized +$61 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day119.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$125
other 32% +$33
sports 8% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.2% -17.0% 65% 35% -23.9%
≤30d 17 -8.2% -17.0% 65% 35% -23.9%
≤90d 17 -8.2% -17.0% 65% 35% -23.9%
all 17 -8.2% -17.0% 65% 35% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 35% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 24% -31.2%
15% -32.2% 18% -37.8%
20% -38.8% 6% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$27 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day119.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 −$20 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $76 +$2 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 0m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 9m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 53m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.56 · official $44.16 · 134 history records