Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf975…0a6c other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+21%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$93
sports 9% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -41.9% -47.5% 25% 25% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.5% 25% -42.8%
10% -52.5% 25% -48.3%
15% -57.1% 25% -53.3%
20% -61.3% 25% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$80 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage112d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $195 −$191 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-08? Mar 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw Mar 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $90 +$119 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $195 1h
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 111d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw BUY Yes 28¢ $29 111d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 112d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 43¢ $90 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 5 history records