Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf978…8c64 crypto 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 345d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$527 (+4%) realized +$527 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%254W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$2
14 days−$16
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$235
sports 21% +$69
weather 1% −$43
politics 1% +$21
other 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +11.1% +0.6% 57% 57% -11.1%
≤30d 56 +3.9% -6.0% 57% 55% +4.4%
≤90d 370 +1.0% -8.6% 52% 49% -3.2%
all 485 +2.7% -7.1% 52% 51% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 51% -7.7%
10% -16.0% 48% -16.6%
15% -24.1% 46% -24.6%
20% -31.5% 41% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

345d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$527
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses254 / 231
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)485 / 486
History coverage345d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$5 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $149 +$59 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$17 +146%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $140 +$21 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 03 $36 +$34 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 03 $63 +$63 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 03 $63 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $54 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 02 $78 +$42 +54%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $38 −$37 -96%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $18 +$20 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $8 +$9 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $60 +$30 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$5 +104%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $23 +$31 +135%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $9 +$14 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$5 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 8¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $29 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $30 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.49 · official $38.49 (match) · 1259 history records