Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf97a…d418 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+4%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$6
world 32% $0
crypto 19% −$6
other 10% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.0% -12.2% 71% 57% -4.3%
≤30d 11 +7.8% -2.5% 82% 55% -2.2%
≤90d 11 +7.8% -2.5% 82% 55% -2.2%
all 21 -1.2% -10.6% 57% 33% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 33% -6.3%
10% -19.2% 19% -15.3%
15% -27.0% 14% -23.5%
20% -34.2% 10% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage162d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $1 $0 +39%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 24 $2 +$1 +59%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 8? Jan 08 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $6 +$6 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? Jan 05 $1 $0 -2%
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? Jan 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? Jan 05 $2 $0 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $8 −$7 -82%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Rachaad White: Rushing Yards O/U 11.5 Jan 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 04 $1 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $9 19h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $7 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $5 21d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $6 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $4 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $5 21d
Ethereum Up or Down on January 8? BUY Down 92¢ $9 157d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 SELL Yes 100¢ $9 159d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $5 159d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $3 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? SELL Up 81¢ $1 161d
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? BUY Up 82¢ $1 161d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 161d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 161d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 55¢ $6 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.18 · official $10.18 (match) · 56 history records