Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf97b…3d7c world 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 65L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$35
other 19% −$3
politics 15% $0
sports 5% −$9
economics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 +4.3% -5.7% 37% 4% -7.6%
≤90d 69 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 1% -8.6%
all 102 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -9.0%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.7%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)102 / 106
History coverage490d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $70 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $51 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $121 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $65 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $128 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 +$1 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $211 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $233 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $143 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $85 +$4 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $79 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $29 +$33 +112%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $4 $0 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $41 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $67 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $55 −$7 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $67 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $8 +$1 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $13 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $76 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $6 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $42 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $33 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $33 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $13 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $8 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $19 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $32 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $20 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $18 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $11 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $27 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $24 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $24 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $23 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $24 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $6 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.17 · official $71.22 (match) · 467 history records