Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf97b…7b48 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-6%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$739
other 34% +$655
world 6% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -35.0% -41.2% 22% 22% -12.4%
≤30d 9 -35.0% -41.2% 22% 22% -12.4%
≤90d 9 -35.0% -41.2% 22% 22% -12.4%
all 9 -35.0% -41.2% 22% 22% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.2% 22% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -46.8% 11% -20.8%
15% -51.9% 11% -28.5%
20% -56.7% 11% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$421 vs −$130 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $31 −$11 -35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $360 +$829 +230%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $266 −$225 -84%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $142 −$139 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $394 −$386 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $306 −$124 -40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $100 +$13 +13%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $10 −$4 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,189 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $42 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $67 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $69 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $56 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $143 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $113 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $31 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $97 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $104 18h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 23h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 23h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 23h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $170 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records