Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F9 0xf97d…5250 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+6%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$12
sports 35% +$5
crypto 22% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 33% -4.7%
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 33% -4.7%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 33% -4.7%
all 9 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 33% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 33% -4.7%
10% -17.9% 11% -13.8%
15% -25.9% 11% -22.1%
20% -33.1% 11% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$17 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$16 -78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$14 -13%
ITF Ystad: Vivian Wolff vs Lea Nilsson Jun 18 $329 +$5 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $288 +$42 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $121 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 43¢ $88 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3h
ITF Ystad: Vivian Wolff vs Lea Nilsson SELL Vivian Wolff 73¢ $268 15h
ITF Ystad: Vivian Wolff vs Lea Nilsson SELL Vivian Wolff 74¢ $66 15h
ITF Ystad: Vivian Wolff vs Lea Nilsson BUY Vivian Wolff 71¢ $329 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $330 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $280 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records