Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf984…24ce sports 440 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$526 (+0%) realized +$526 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%145W / 295L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$1,188est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,623
7 days+$480
14 days−$3,284
30 days+$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,466
other 35% +$2,890
crypto 9% −$4,180
world 0% −$205
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -7.3% -16.1% 28% 28% -6.8%
≤30d 110 +20.7% +9.2% 40% 40% -4.2%
≤90d 183 +15.7% +4.7% 35% 34% -4.6%
all 440 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 31% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 31% -7.8%
10% -16.5% 30% -16.6%
15% -24.6% 29% -24.7%
20% -32.0% 28% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$453 vs −$223 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$526
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses145 / 295
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,188
Open positions0
Markets (closed)440 / 440
History coverage169d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 440 Trades
no open positions (135 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,457 +$1,640 +112%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $173 −$169 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $216 −$210 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $360 −$360 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $450 −$450 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $560 −$560 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $591 +$509 +86%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $77 −$75 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $508 +$492 +97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $32 +$60 +188%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $976 +$952 +98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $480 +$1,018 +212%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $520 −$520 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $123 −$120 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $7 +$10 +147%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $294 −$294 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $45 +$450 +1000%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$39 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $184 −$181 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $90 −$88 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $199 +$92 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $254 −$250 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $440 −$214 -49%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $653 +$608 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $133 −$130 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $306 −$300 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $254 +$242 +95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $45 −$44 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $598 +$737 +123%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $176 −$176 -100%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $266 −$135 -51%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $210 −$113 -54%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $894 −$349 -39%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $97 −$95 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $39 −$38 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $824 +$673 +82%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $88 +$505 +572%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $95 −$87 -91%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $980 −$325 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $3,097 59m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $173 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $216 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $1,370 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $87 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $181 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $55 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $13 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $28 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $63 2h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $343 2h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $107 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $32 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $528 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $591 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $77 6h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,586 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $343 21h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $32 21h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,498 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $976 22h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $480 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $300 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $43 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $53 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $53 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $53 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2291 history records