Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf989…aca2
world · 75 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$131 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$131 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$34
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)70 / 75
History coverage238d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 5 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$55
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 33¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 46¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BNK FEARX 22¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30? No 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? Yes 79¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima Brandon Nakashima 22¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 31? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Timofey Skatov 37¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Felix Auger-Aliassime $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ThunderTalk Gaming 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? No 10¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang Xiyu Wang 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Grokipedia released by October 31? No $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $26 +$2 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $60 −$4 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$4 -56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $7 −$2 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$4 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $8 +$3 +42%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $7 +$1 +12%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $6 +$6 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $6 +$6 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $7 +$2 +28%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 06 $7 −$5 -62%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$1 -24%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$4 -64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 31? May 31 $4 −$4 -94%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $2 −$1 -54%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $2 $0 -17%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $5 −$2 -32%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $5 $0 -1%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $5 −$3 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $10 +$1 +13%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $5 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $1 $0 -32%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9.5m and 11m? May 24 $1 −$1 -67%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin May 24 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% −$53
sports 20% −$29
politics 12% −$52
other 8% +$21
crypto 6% −$16
economics 2% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 18h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 30h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 30h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 31h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 31h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 32h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 33¢ $7 36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 36h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $7 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $7 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $7 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 41% -19.1%
≤30d 50 -0.9% -10.3% 24% 18% -29.7%
≤90d 50 -0.9% -10.3% 24% 18% -29.7%
all 70 +3.9% -6.0% 26% 21% -40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 21% -40.3%
10% -15.0% 19% -46.0%
15% -23.2% 17% -51.2%
20% -30.7% 14% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.55 · official $33.55 (match) · 173 history records