Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf98b…57bb sports 667 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,043 (-3%) realized −$2,050 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%398W / 261L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$828est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$97
14 days+$724
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$874
crypto 3% −$1,625
other 2% −$107
world 1% +$24
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -3.6% -12.8% 60% 50% -6.5%
≤30d 314 +6.6% -3.5% 65% 52% -8.3%
≤90d 576 +2.0% -7.8% 61% 51% -10.3%
all 659 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 51% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 51% -10.8%
10% -16.1% 43% -19.3%
15% -24.2% 33% -27.1%
20% -31.6% 23% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$65 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized−$2,050
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses398 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$828
Open positions7
Markets (closed)659 / 667
History coverage233d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 659 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 74¢ $152 $149 −$3 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 74¢ $102 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 80¢ 100¢ $61 $76 +$16 (+26%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Another pandemic before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Amaru Gaming 92¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $549 +$27 +5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $631 −$109 -17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $101 −$68 -67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $55 −$54 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $92 −$15 -16%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $245 +$93 +38%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $182 −$86 -47%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $195 +$55 +28%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $64 +$41 +64%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $76 +$24 +32%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $285 +$54 +19%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $257 +$13 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $16 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $212 +$32 +15%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $44 −$10 -22%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $125 +$25 +20%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $203 +$47 +23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$37 -37%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $38 −$20 -53%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $94 −$8 -8%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $349 −$144 -41%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $239 +$53 +22%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $66 +$34 +51%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $81 +$30 +36%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $67 +$14 +21%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $71 +$21 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $81 +$56 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $319 +$19 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $310 −$176 -57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$14 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$6 -28%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $170 +$50 +29%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $32 −$16 -49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $241 −$177 -74%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $281 +$75 +27%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $173 +$87 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$41 -40%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $117 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $190 −$105 -55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $23 −$2 -8%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$11 -27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 93¢ $57 26m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 85¢ $52 26m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 87¢ $217 31m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 81¢ $202 33m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 79¢ $23 38m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 79¢ $56 39m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 69¢ $69 39m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 94¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 62¢ $161 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 62¢ $62 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 92¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 62¢ $163 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 62¢ $63 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 33¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 26¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 48¢ $77 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 26¢ $29 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 26¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 26¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 49¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 83¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 83¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 83¢ $77 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 82¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 65¢ $162 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 25¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 72¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 15¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 56¢ $49 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.59 · official $411.59 (match) · 2952 history records