Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F9 0xf98d…3cb1 crypto 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$36 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%85W / 32L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$76
14 days−$109
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$112
other 22% −$55
sports 1% +$61
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -2.3% -11.6% 86% 14% -9.8%
≤30d 102 -3.0% -12.2% 75% 18% -9.8%
≤90d 104 -3.9% -13.0% 75% 17% -9.8%
all 117 -6.8% -15.6% 73% 18% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 18% -9.8%
10% -23.7% 10% -18.4%
15% -31.1% 9% -26.3%
20% -37.8% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses85 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)117 / 124
History coverage220d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 47¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 50¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 94¢ 93¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $88 +$16 +18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 15? Jun 16 $135 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 16 $139 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $204 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $204 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $154 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $180 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $204 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $204 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $221 +$31 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,370 +$1 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$157 -78%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,370 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 15, 2AM ET? Jun 15 $149 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $299 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $440 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $199 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,266 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $595 +$1 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,412 +$59 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 13? Jun 14 $190 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $288 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 13? Jun 13 $290 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $290 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $820 +$8 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 12? Jun 13 $352 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 12? Jun 13 $280 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 12? Jun 13 $255 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $330 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $190 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 12? Jun 13 $145 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 11? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 11? Jun 12 $320 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 11? Jun 12 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $116 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $88 9h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $139 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $180 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $221 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $44 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,370 26h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $135 31h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $204 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $154 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $204 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $204 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $204 31h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 15, 2AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $149 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,370 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $170 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $440 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,965 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,195 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,201 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $99 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 43h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 34¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $595 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $199 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.75 · official $181.75 (match) · 271 history records