Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf991…3c47 crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate86%94W / 15L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$12
14 days+$32
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$29
other 4% +$2
tech 3% +$3
world 3% +$8
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -4.5% -13.6% 84% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 103 -1.0% -10.4% 86% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 109 -0.8% -10.2% 86% 4% -9.3%
all 109 -0.8% -10.2% 86% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.7% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$538
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses94 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)109 / 114
History coverage37d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $503 $505 +$3 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? No 86¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $309 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $474 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $460 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $267 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $459 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 14? Jun 14 $324 +$1 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Completed match? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $442 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$5 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $323 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $322 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $321 +$1 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $257 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $137 −$11 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $96 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $278 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $373 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $170 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $201 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $371 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $362 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $654 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $153 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $214 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 07 $199 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 07 $15 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $24 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $503 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $310 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $299 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $509 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $510 20h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $21 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $67 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $100 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $308 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $474 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $50 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $32 37h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $9 38h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $9 38h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 77¢ $23 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $31 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.58 · official $537.58 (match) · 342 history records