Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf993…cd9d
other · 314 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$7,853 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,786 · open +$128
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,105
Realized−$7,786
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses225 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions4
Markets (closed)310 / 314
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,441
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 4 History 310 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$557
7 days−$304
14 days+$2,072
30 days−$2,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,052 $1,074 +$22 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 93¢ 99¢ $972 $1,030 +$57 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 87¢ 96¢ $572 $628 +$57 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 76¢ 74¢ $380 $372 −$8 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 92¢ 0¢ $460 $0 −$460 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $169 $0 −$169 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $441 −$80 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $518 +$24 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $399 +$101 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $900 +$97 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,334 +$113 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $647 −$398 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3,373 +$133 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,538 +$179 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$60 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $640 −$340 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $462 −$460 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $932 +$50 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $658 +$83 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $566 +$28 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $583 +$16 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,404 +$96 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $597 +$20 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $471 +$29 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $481 +$19 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $724 −$352 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $750 −$136 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2,785 +$213 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $939 +$61 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $910 +$65 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $487 +$12 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $785 +$15 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $754 +$44 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $493 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $712 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $561 +$70 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $478 +$21 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $974 +$25 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $283 +$17 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,084 −$16 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $877 +$40 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $648 +$27 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $2,603 +$79 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $443 +$57 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $486 +$14 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,024 +$775 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $472 +$27 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,123 +$31 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $568 +$31 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2,011 +$166 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $3,011 +$484 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $543 +$77 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4,309 +$110 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $837 +$163 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $481 +$19 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2,152 +$348 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$296
world 19% −$4,789
sports 12% +$130
crypto 2% −$792
tech 2% −$278
finance 1% −$255
politics 1% −$1,970
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $94 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $267 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 87¢ $40 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 87¢ $7 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 87¢ $475 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 87¢ $50 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 90¢ $743 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 90¢ $1,000 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 89¢ $890 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 89¢ $18 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 89¢ $18 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 89¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 89¢ $6 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 89¢ $1,363 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $3,374 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $262 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $281 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 99¢ $109 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 76¢ $380 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $997 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 88¢ $440 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $190 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $6 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $34 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $7 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $8 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $6 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $6 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $6 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.8% -14.7% 78% 12% -10.5%
≤30d 100 -2.6% -11.9% 78% 21% -11.0%
≤90d 291 -2.3% -11.6% 71% 24% -16.8%
all 310 +1.4% -8.3% 73% 25% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 25% -11.1%
10% -17.1% 11% -19.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.1% 7% -27.4%
20% -32.4% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,104.57 · official $3,092.07 (match) · 3500 history records