trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 67% | 0% | -8.1% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +16.0% | +4.9% | 89% | 44% | -7.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +15.2% | +4.2% | 91% | 45% | -7.3% |
| all | 11 | +15.2% | +4.2% | 91% | 45% | -7.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.2% | 45% | -7.3% |
| 10% | -5.8% | 18% | -16.2% |
| 15% | -14.9% | 9% | -24.3% |
| 20% | -23.2% | 9% | -31.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $105 | $105 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $74 | $74 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Jun 19 | $58 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $146 | +$5 | +3% |
| Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | Jun 06 | $4 | +$1 | +20% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +35% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 27 | $1 | +$1 | +65% |
| Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +19% |