Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf994…9e71 world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 345d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate28%25W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% $0
other 22% +$2
politics 18% −$3
sports 12% −$1
economics 8% $0
crypto 3% −$2
finance 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 21 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -0.0% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 90 -0.0% -9.6% 28% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

345d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses25 / 65
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage345d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $27 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $89 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 −$2 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $1 $0 +9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $55 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $29 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $3 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $52 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $7 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $58 −$3 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $64 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $27 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $30 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $30 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $19 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $24 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $29 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $32 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $29 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $29 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.84 · official $28.71 (match) · 350 history records