Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf994…493b crypto 643 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$669 (+1%) realized +$669 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate93%597W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$285
14 days+$411
30 days+$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$460
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +7.6% -2.7% 100% 17% -2.8%
≤30d 263 +0.8% -8.8% 92% 22% -8.9%
≤90d 395 +1.4% -8.3% 93% 21% -8.4%
all 643 +1.1% -8.5% 93% 20% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 20% -8.7%
10% -17.3% 5% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 1% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$76 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$669
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses597 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)643 / 643
History coverage115d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 643 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1450 history records