Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf99f…bff3 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$14
politics 30% −$9
sports 5% −$8
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -1.2% -10.6% 7% 5% -9.6%
all 109 -1.9% -11.3% 8% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 5% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 4% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×8.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage115d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $374 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $420 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $415 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $151 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $207 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $192 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $174 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $150 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $203 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $343 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 30 $202 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $193 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $737 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $156 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $209 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $201 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $148 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $155 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $374 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $398 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $165 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $386 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $422 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $333 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $163 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $182 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $182 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $171 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $171 35d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 36d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $168 38d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $176 38d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $176 44d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $206 45d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $206 45d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $201 45d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $201 45d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $151 45d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $151 45d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $149 46d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $149 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 47d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 47d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 47d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $192 47d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $174 47d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $174 47d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $150 48d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $150 48d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $177 49d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $177 49d
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $208 49d
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $208 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records