Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:59:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf9a2…40c4 sports 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,783 (-8%) realized −$1,720 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%46W / 48L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$187est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,837now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$213
7 days−$213
14 days−$195
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$1,463
other 20% −$467
politics 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.5% -55.2% 0% 0% -25.4%
≤30d 7 -26.3% -33.4% 43% 29% -12.5%
≤90d 94 -11.4% -19.9% 49% 41% -17.7%
all 94 -11.4% -19.9% 49% 41% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 41% -17.7%
10% -27.5% 31% -25.6%
15% -34.5% 20% -32.7%
20% -41.0% 13% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$75 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,837
Realized−$1,720
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses46 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions4
Markets (closed)94 / 98
History coverage78d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $1,000 $939 −$61 (-6%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $203 −$203 -100%
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Jun 21 $1,006 −$10 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$53 -52%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4,010 +$127 +3%
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 +$34 +11%
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Apr 26 $150 −$73 -49%
Madrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally Apr 26 $200 −$17 -8%
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana Apr 23 $326 −$150 -46%
Madrid Open: Terence Atmane vs Miomir Kecmanovic Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong Apr 22 $300 −$3 -1%
Madrid Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Vit Kopriva Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open: Shuai Zhang vs Eva Lys Apr 22 $180 −$180 -100%
Madrid Open: Elvina Kalieva vs Katerina Siniakova Apr 22 $200 +$22 +11%
Savannah: Jack Kennedy vs Kei Nishikori Apr 22 $200 −$96 -48%
Oeiras 4: Guiomar Maristany vs Polina Kudermetova Apr 22 $200 −$62 -31%
Madrid Open: Taylor Townsend vs Katie Boulter Apr 22 $55 +$54 +99%
Madrid Open: Jaime Faria vs Hubert Hurkacz Apr 22 $50 +$14 +28%
Madrid Open: Raphael Collignon vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 22 $30 $0 -2%
Madrid Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Antonia Ruzic Apr 22 $145 +$60 +42%
Madrid Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Ethan Quinn Apr 22 $100 −$3 -3%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Pavlyuche Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Leolia Jeanjean vs Rebeka Masarova Apr 21 $135 −$135 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Anastasia Potapova vs Sinja Kraus Apr 21 $200 +$43 +22%
Abidjan: Aziz Dougaz vs Paul Jubb Apr 21 $150 +$35 +23%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Zakharova vs Camila Osorio Apr 21 $60 +$18 +30%
Madrid Open: Robin Montgomery vs Magda Linette Apr 21 $170 +$69 +40%
Madrid Open: Anna Bondar vs Viktorija Golubic Apr 21 $30 +$8 +26%
Madrid Open: Paula Badosa vs Julia Grabher Apr 21 $70 −$12 -18%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Elvina Kalieva Apr 21 $45 +$1 +3%
Santa Cruz: Matias Soto vs Juan Carlos Prado Apr 17 $104 −$8 -7%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Veronika Podrez vs Katie Boulter Apr 17 $100 +$65 +65%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff Apr 17 $250 −$155 -62%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel Diallo Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $100 +$40 +40%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Andrey Rublev Apr 17 $100 +$61 +61%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Apr 17 $100 +$56 +56%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima Apr 16 $50 +$8 +17%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Leylah Fernandez vs Zeynep Sonmez Apr 16 $50 $0 +0%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Liudmila Samsonova vs Coco Gauff Apr 16 $310 +$140 +45%
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Rei Sakamoto Apr 16 $40 +$9 +22%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Apr 16 $100 +$24 +24%
Barcelona Open: Corentin Moutet vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 16 $100 +$24 +24%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Veronika P Apr 16 $100 −$13 -13%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Hailey Baptiste vs Iryna Shymanovich Apr 16 $30 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $202 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 41¢ $200 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $507 4h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $996 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 7h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $1,006 7h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $503 7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $203 8h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $48 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $4,137 7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $4,010 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $335 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 8d
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff SELL Sorana Cirstea 31¢ $25 56d
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff BUY Sorana Cirstea 62¢ $40 56d
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff BUY Sorana Cirstea 62¢ $10 56d
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff SELL Coco Gauff 31¢ $52 56d
Madrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 57¢ $183 56d
Madrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 79¢ $100 56d
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 78¢ $200 56d
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 59¢ $100 56d
Madrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 50¢ $100 56d
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong SELL Rafael Jodar 57¢ $156 60d
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana SELL Francisco Comesana 11¢ $26 60d
Madrid Open: Elvina Kalieva vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Katerina Siniakova 100¢ $136 60d
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana SELL Francisco Comesana 20¢ $44 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,837.10 · official $1,837.10 (match) · 277 history records