Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F9 0xf9a2…b9d9 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$660 (+24%) realized +$660 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%30W / 15L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$345
7 days+$770
14 days+$783
30 days+$783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$429
other 33% +$241
sports 8% +$118
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +55.7% +40.9% 78% 78% +29.3%
≤30d 45 +20.4% +8.9% 67% 58% +16.0%
≤90d 45 +20.4% +8.9% 67% 58% +16.0%
all 45 +20.4% +8.9% 67% 58% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.9% 58% +16.0%
10% ← realistic here -1.5% 56% +4.9%
15% -11.0% 56% -5.2%
20% -19.7% 47% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$50 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$660
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses30 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage9d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $125 +$83 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $95 +$231 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $140 −$136 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $69 +$70 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$78 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$18 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$43 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$33 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $244 +$121 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $400 +$392 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $131 +$160 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $83 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$31 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $72 +$28 +38%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $25 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$20 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$16 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $178 +$23 +13%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $36 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$14 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $208 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $125 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $326 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $95 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $140 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $96 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $53 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $19 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $247 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $793 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $118 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 54¢ $118 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $126 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $400 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $273 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $292 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $131 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records