Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf9a4…8427 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,326 (-4%) realized −$719 · open −$607
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%41W / 39L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$468est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$1,069
14 days−$1,162
30 days−$1,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,977
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.1% -10.6% 48% 43% +1.7%
≤30d 78 -13.7% -22.0% 50% 42% -13.3%
≤90d 80 -12.3% -20.7% 51% 44% -13.2%
all 80 -12.3% -20.7% 51% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 44% -13.2%
10% -28.3% 40% -21.5%
15% -35.2% 38% -29.1%
20% -41.6% 30% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$528) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$321 vs −$373 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized−$719
Unrealized−$607
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses41 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$468
Open positions4
Markets (closed)80 / 84
History coverage30d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 55¢ 60¢ $301 $325 +$25 (+8%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $203 $201 −$2 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 27¢ 0¢ $392 $1 −$391 (-100%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Spirit 44¢ 0¢ $238 $0 −$238 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $279 +$222 +80%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $296 +$371 +126%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N Jun 18 $408 +$184 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $400 +$372 +93%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $301 −$296 -98%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $451 −$443 -98%
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $162 −$159 -98%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 17 $140 −$137 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $145 −$142 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $701 +$383 +55%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) Jun 16 $351 +$369 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $354 −$349 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $306 +$631 +206%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1,187 +$867 +73%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $424 +$763 +180%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $351 +$21 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $289 −$285 -98%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 13 $668 −$655 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $271 +$558 +206%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 12 $340 −$333 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $480 −$473 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $2,177 −$2,155 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $252 +$298 +118%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $604 +$197 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,188 +$904 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $526 −$523 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $446 −$443 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $250 −$247 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $288 +$403 +140%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 10 $569 +$496 +87%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $195 +$18 +9%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $195 −$191 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 09 $473 −$466 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $490 +$373 +76%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $181 −$178 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $416 +$164 +40%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $679 −$665 -98%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $166 −$163 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $151 +$20 +13%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (+1.5) Jun 09 $29 −$28 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $201 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,913 +$662 +35%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $364 +$235 +64%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,236 +$512 +41%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $878 +$347 +40%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $50 +$22 +44%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $11 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $293 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $205 1h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $501 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 44¢ $3 16h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 44¢ $239 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 27¢ $200 18h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 100¢ $592 18h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 27¢ $200 18h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 69¢ $6 23h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 68¢ $402 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $146 23h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $79 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $4 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $145 24h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $1 24h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $199 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $772 24h
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $301 30h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $451 40h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 32¢ $2 45h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 32¢ $160 45h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 22¢ $140 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $200 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $2 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $198 47h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $2 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $143 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $354 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.88 · official $526.88 (match) · 204 history records