Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9a6…933f crypto 318 markets active 11h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%188W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day70.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$24
other 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 55% -12.3%
≤30d 317 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 55% -12.3%
≤90d 317 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 55% -12.3%
all 317 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 55% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 55% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 51% -20.7%
15% -25.3% 44% -28.3%
20% -32.6% 32% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses188 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)317 / 318
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day70.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 785 history records