Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F9 0xf9af…497c sports 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,594 (-16%) realized −$8,783 · open +$189
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%39W / 32L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$692per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$18,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$357
7 days+$362
14 days+$390
30 days+$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$4,281
sports 33% −$4,286
politics 11% +$82
tech 3% −$129
culture 1% +$3
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.2% +6.9% 86% 86% +25.8%
≤30d 9 +23.6% +11.8% 89% 89% +26.0%
≤90d 10 +21.2% +9.7% 90% 80% +18.9%
all 71 -16.4% -24.4% 55% 45% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 45% -32.5%
10% -31.6% 34% -38.9%
15% -38.2% 27% -44.8%
20% -44.3% 24% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$494 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$18,324
Realized−$8,783
Unrealized+$189
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses39 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)71 / 77
History coverage197d
Avg bet$692
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $4,773 $5,476 +$702 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $4,483 $3,901 −$582 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $3,261 $3,503 +$242 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $2,830 $3,312 +$482 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2,739 $2,047 −$692 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $406 +$335 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 +$21 +14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? Apr 14 $250 +$1 +0%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Jan 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-2.5) Jan 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Jan 28 $2 $0 +23%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Jan 28 $2 +$2 +104%
Spread: Lakers (-1.5) Jan 28 $16 +$16 +100%
Spread: Bruins (-1.5) Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Jan 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ducks vs. Flames Jan 26 $8 +$8 +100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jan 26 $16 +$15 +96%
Spread: Penguins (-1.5) Jan 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Devils (-1.5) Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-16.5) Jan 25 $8 +$8 +96%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Jan 25 $16 +$16 +100%
Canadiens vs. Bruins Jan 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Jan 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-3.5) Jan 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Ducks vs. Kraken Jan 24 $4 +$4 +108%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Suns (-3.5) Jan 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Jan 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-4.5) Jan 23 $2 +$2 +104%
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) Jan 23 $2 +$2 +104%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Penguins vs. Flames Jan 22 $2 +$2 +89%
Spread: Celtics (-10.5) Jan 22 $2 +$2 +92%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Jan 22 $2 +$2 +92%
Stars vs. Blue Jackets Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 17 $7,283 −$7,283 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $4,250 +$2,953 +70%
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship? Jan 12 $1,000 +$72 +7%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 12 $1,598 +$1,802 +113%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 11 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $750 +$846 +113%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $500 +$102 +20%
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 02 $300 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $250 +$22 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $58 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $93 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $108 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $155 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $51 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $101 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $25 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $76 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $94 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $109 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $148 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $253 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 64¢ $113 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $149 47h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $158 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $169 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $227 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $128 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,324.43 · official $18,327.30 (match) · 443 history records