Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9b3…99d6 other 341 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%173W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$60
sports 37% −$101
politics 2% +$26
world 1% −$9
economics 1% +$9
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.0% -24.0% 33% 33% -18.1%
≤30d 9 -16.0% -24.0% 33% 33% -18.1%
≤90d 10 -24.4% -31.6% 30% 30% -28.3%
all 339 -7.6% -16.4% 51% 51% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 51% -10.1%
10% -24.4% 48% -18.7%
15% -31.7% 42% -26.5%
20% -38.4% 34% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses173 / 166
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)339 / 341
History coverage240d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-19? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Brisbane International: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Perricard 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-03? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2025-12-20? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Valencia win on 2025-12-07? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Hornets Hawks 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-11? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Predators Avalanche 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX (BO3) 3DMAX 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Heat Heat 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-30? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Lightning vs. Kings Kings 70¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad vs. PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-13? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Penguins Penguins 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Ceará SC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +121%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Miami Open, Qualification: Jay Clarke vs Shintaro Mochizuki Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Mar 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 07 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $2 +$1 +27%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $6 −$4 -66%
Longwood Lancers vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs Mar 07 $5 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $5 +$3 +54%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $8 −$5 -60%
Grambling State Tigers vs. Alabama State Hornets Mar 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 06 $5 +$4 +82%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 05 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Mar 05 $2 +$2 +85%
Brasilia: Guto Miguel vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $10 −$6 -59%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs QUAZAR (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qua Mar 04 $5 +$3 +68%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $11 +$9 +82%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 03 $5 +$9 +186%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $3 −$3 -85%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers Mar 02 $9 +$3 +33%
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Mar 01 $7 +$2 +30%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 01 $6 +$1 +16%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $9 +$4 +41%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-11? Feb 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $4 +$3 +61%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $9 +$1 +16%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Feb 05 $5 +$3 +61%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $10 −$5 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 34h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Miami Open, Qualification: Jay Clarke vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 59¢ $4 90d
Mavericks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 80¢ $5 98d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 99d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 99d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 99d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-06? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 99d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-06? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 99d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-06? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 99d
Longwood Lancers vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs BUY UNC Asheville Bulldogs 65¢ $5 99d
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 100d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 100d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.09 · official $2.09 (match) · 682 history records