Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9b3…4a99 sports 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$141 (-19%) realized −$136 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +34.0% +21.3% 28% 28% -21.4%
≤30d 32 +34.0% +21.3% 28% 28% -21.4%
≤90d 35 +22.5% +10.9% 26% 26% -31.6%
all 35 +22.5% +10.9% 26% 26% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 26% -31.6%
10% +0.3% 23% -38.1%
15% -9.4% 23% -44.1%
20% -18.3% 23% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +72% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$15 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions7
Markets (closed)35 / 42
History coverage59d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 11¢ 14¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+27%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 35¢ 32¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ 34¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-32%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SPARTA 37¢ 36¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner TDK 44¢ 43¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ 57¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $34 −$8 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $41 +$60 +148%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$9 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$12 +236%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$15 +292%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $46 +$51 +110%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$7 +345%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$6 +27%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 10¢ $5 5m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 8¢ $5 11m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 20¢ $5 17m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 36¢ $5 54m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 43¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 36¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 44¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 46¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 37¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 34¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 39¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 36¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 36¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 19¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 20¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 9¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 55¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 32¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 26¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 37¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 37¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 37¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 13¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.16 · official $89.17 (match) · 118 history records